Preface
Last week, the global steel industry exhibited a dynamic landscape featuring Europe's new trade policies reshaping import patterns, concentrated rollouts of low-carbon technology upgrades by European and American steelmakers, continued capacity expansion in Southeast Asia, rising demand driven by infrastructure projects in India and the Middle East, accelerated industrialization of hydrogen metallurgy in Japan and South Korea, and regional divergence in global steel prices. The EU's new steel import tariff bill officially took effect, significantly reducing duty-free quotas and doubling excess tariffs, directly impacting global steel trade flows. Leading steelmakers in Europe and America disclosed key milestones in green hydrogen DRI, short-process electric furnaces, and CCUS carbon capture projects. Southeast Asia leveraged its nickel and iron ore resources to expand integrated steel mills, with Chinese EPC projects accelerating. India and the Middle East saw increased demand for long products due to infrastructure and manufacturing recovery. Globally, raw material prices for iron ore and scrap fluctuated, while international steel prices in Europe and America remained steady or rose, with markets in Turkey and other Central and Eastern European countries continuing to face pressure. This article systematically reviews the week's developments across six global regions—Europe, North America, Japan and South Korea, Southeast Asia, India and the Middle East, and Oceania—through six dimensions: industrial policies, project investments, low-carbon upgrades, production and sales data, raw material trends, and international trade. The full text spans approximately 6,200 words.
1. European Region: EU's New Steel Protection Policy Takes Effect, Low-Carbon Steelmaking Projects Enter Intensive Construction Phase
Last week's key development in the European steel industry was the official implementation of the EU's new steel import regulations. Combined with the ongoing cost increases from the CBAM carbon tariff, local steelmakers are accelerating the transition from blast furnaces to short-process and hydrogen-based ironmaking. European crude steel production remains stable with slight growth, while regional steel ex-factory prices show fluctuating upward trends.
1. EU's New Steel Import Control Policy Takes Effect: Import Quotas Halved, Excess Tariffs Raised to 50%
The new steel trade policy approved by the European Parliament in late May officially entered implementation last week, becoming a major policy affecting global steel trade. The new policy reduces the EU's annual duty-free steel import quota from 33 million tons to 18.3 million tons—a 47% cut—while raising tariffs on excess imports from 25% to 50%. It also introduces new rules for tracing the origin of molten steel, using the location of steel smelting as the criterion for product origin to prevent tariff evasion through invoice manipulation.
Eurofer data shows EU crude steel production reached 10.8 million tons in April, up 2.1% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of growth. The policy has boosted local steelmakers' confidence, but downstream industries like automotive and machinery manufacturing are protesting rising steel prices. Analysts estimate the policy will add €5-9 billion in additional steel procurement costs for European manufacturers annually, with automotive production costs rising by about 5% due to steel price hikes. ArcelorMittal's Spanish division publicly stated that strict tariffs cannot resolve the industry's reliance on imports (over 50%) and will force companies to accelerate low-carbon transformation for cost efficiency. Tightened quotas have redirected surplus steel originally bound for the EU to markets like Turkey, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, increasing short-term supply pressure in these regions.
2. ThyssenKrupp's hydrogen-based DRI demonstration plant in Germany enters production preparation phase; electrical steel production line to undergo partial shutdown from June to September.
Last week, ThyssenKrupp officially announced the completion of equipment installation at its €250 million hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI) demonstration plant in Duisburg, with trial operations set to commence in Q3. The project, with an annual output of 100,000 tons of green hydrogen-reduced iron, is Germany’s first industrial-scale hydrogen metallurgy pilot facility. Once operational, it will be paired with electric arc furnaces, reducing carbon emissions per ton of steel by over 75%. Concurrently, the company finalized its capacity adjustment plan. Due to competition from low-priced imported grain-oriented electrical steel, the Isbergues plant in France will temporarily shut down its production line from June to September, after operating at just 50% capacity for an extended period. In recent years, European imports of electrical steel have doubled compared to 2022, squeezing profits for domestic high-end specialty steel producers. The company plans to optimize its European specialty steel capacity layout by closing inefficient lines and focusing resources on low-carbon specialty steel production. Additionally, ThyssenKrupp’s Carbon2Chem project completed Phase II pilot data verification last week, refining gas purification processes to improve CO₂ conversion efficiency, with annual carbon capture exceeding 120,000 tons of by-product CO₂ from steel plants.
3. Tata Steel accelerates construction of two major low-carbon projects in the UK and the Netherlands, targeting 2027 for operational launch
Tata Steel’s £1.25 billion electric arc furnace (EAF) conversion project at Port Talbot, UK, completed civil piling work last week. The project, backed by £500 million in low-carbon subsidies from the UK government, will establish a 3.2 million-ton-per-year EAF line using scrap steel as the primary feedstock. Upon completion, the site’s carbon emissions are expected to drop by 90%, with operations slated to begin by the end of 2027. In the Netherlands, the €5 billion green steel transformation plan for the IJmuiden plant has been refined, confirming the shutdown of one traditional blast furnace by 2030, to be replaced by a hydrogen-based DRI + EAF short-process line. The revamped facility will produce 6 million tons of low-carbon steel annually, with emissions per ton falling below 1.8 tons—a 38% reduction from current levels. The company has also signed a long-term green hydrogen supply agreement with a Dutch energy firm to ensure stable feedstock for future hydrogen-based steelmaking.
4. SSAB’s green steel project advances steadily in Sweden, while Voestalpine secures budget for EAF upgrades in Austria
Nordic green steel continues to lead globally, with SSAB’s 2.5 million-ton green hydrogen-based short-process steel plant in Luleå completing its bidding for steelmaking and continuous casting equipment last week. The facility will employ Danieli’s digital EAF technology, leveraging cheap Nordic wind power for green hydrogen production, with output earmarked for Mercedes and BMW plants in Europe. Meanwhile, the 1.5 million-ton EAF project in Oxelösund has entered the equipment procurement phase, capable of flexibly using 100% scrap steel or HYBRIT hydrogen-based reduced iron. Once operational, it will reduce Sweden’s annual carbon emissions by 3%. In Austria, Voestalpine’s "Greentec Steel" plan has finalized this year’s upgrade budget, with initial funding allocated for 1.7 million tons of EAF conversion projects at its Linz and Donawitz plants. The phased shutdown of outdated blast furnaces aims to cut emissions by 30% from 2019 levels by 2029.
5. The Turkish steel market continues to weaken, with FOB quotations for long products fluctuating at low levels, and steel mills facing expanding losses.
As a key steel exporter on Europe's periphery, Turkey's mainstream rebar FOB price last week was $590/ton, with persistently weak transactions. The price gap between scrap steel and finished products was only $178/ton, leaving most long product steel mills operating below the break-even line, prompting some small and medium-sized electric arc furnace mills to voluntarily limit production to stabilize prices. Squeezed by the EU's new tariff policy, Turkish steel originally destined for Europe has been diverted to the Middle East and North Africa, creating a regional surplus of spot resources. Short-term steel prices lack upward momentum.
II. North America: Major DRI Projects Launched by US Steelmakers, New Energy Infrastructure Boosts Specialty Steel Demand
Last week saw concentrated steel investments in the US and Canada, with leading steel companies accelerating natural gas-based DRI deployment. Demand for high-strength alloy steels and specialty steels continues to rise, driven by automotive, wind power, energy storage, and data center infrastructure, keeping North American steel prices stable with upward bias.
1. U.S. Steel Breaks Ground on $1.9 Billion Arkansas DRI Project
U.S. Steel announced the groundbreaking of its direct reduced iron (DRI) plant at the Big River Steel facility in Arkansas last week. The $1.9 billion project is a landmark new natural gas-based DRI initiative in the US, with an annual production capacity of 2.8 million tons of reduced iron. It includes a dedicated electric arc furnace production line and will create 2,000 temporary jobs during construction and 235 permanent positions post-operation. Leveraging cheap inland natural gas resources, the project reduces reliance on blast furnace coke and aligns with the expansion trend of short-process steelmaking in the US. Output will prioritize supply to automotive and heavy equipment manufacturers in the Midwest.
2. POSCO + Hyundai Steel's $5.8 billion integrated steel plant in the US finalizes equipment suppliers
POSCO-Hyundai Steel's joint venture in Louisiana, USA, has officially selected Danieli as the full-equipment partner for its low-carbon steel plant. The $5.8 billion project includes a 2.5-million-ton ENERGIRON natural gas DRI facility and two electric arc furnaces with a combined capacity of 2.88 million tons. The production line is designed for future green hydrogen upgrades and CCUS carbon capture integration, focusing on automotive panels and high-strength structural steel, with products targeting *** North American new energy vehicle manufacturers. The construction period is three years, with full production expected by 2029. This project marks a strategic move by Korean and Japanese steelmakers to deepen their presence in the North American low-carbon steel market, avoiding EU tariffs while aligning with the U.S. new energy supply chain demand.
3. Diverging Steel Demand in Canada and Mexico: Mexico Launches Anti-Dumping Probe on Steel Products
Canada continues to advance its low-carbon construction materials policy, mandating the use of high-recycled-content electric furnace steel in infrastructure projects. Last week, the Canadian Construction Association raised its annual low-carbon steel procurement forecast by 12%. Meanwhile, Mexico's transportation infrastructure construction activity has increased month-on-month, boosting demand for long products. However, the Mexican Ministry of Economy announced an anti-dumping investigation into Chinese steel bolts, tightening import restrictions for small and medium-sized steel products, diverting some imports to the U.S. market. In the U.S., concentrated construction of data centers and onshore wind turbine foundations has driven up orders for high-strength specialty steel, pushing domestic specialty steel prices up 1.8% week-on-week.
III. Japan-South Korea Region: Hydrogen Metallurgy Technology Advances, Steelmakers Optimize Costs with Phased Maintenance
Last week, leading Japanese and South Korean steelmakers focused on three key areas: COURSE50 hydrogen injection pilot projects for blast furnaces, energy-saving retrofits for existing furnaces, and electric furnace capacity expansion. Domestic manufacturing orders remained stable, while steel exports adjusted regional strategies due to EU tariff impacts.
1. Nippon Steel's Super COURSE50 hydrogen-injected blast furnace pilot project achieves phased data breakthrough
Nippon Steel updated test data from the Kimitsu Steel Works' Super COURSE50 hydrogen-reducing blast furnace last week, achieving a 22% reduction in CO2 emissions per furnace by injecting by-product hydrogen to partially replace coke—surpassing the first-generation COURSE50 project's 16% emission reduction ceiling. The company plans to complete hydrogen injection retrofits for three main blast furnaces by 2028, while simultaneously adding two new scrap-based electric arc furnaces at the Yahata and Hirohata plants to gradually phase out traditional blast furnace capacity in compliance with Japan's carbon neutrality legislation. Scheduled maintenance at some small-to-medium blast furnaces in Japan has led to a slight dip in pig iron production, driving a modest price increase for domestic construction-grade steel.
2. POSCO Refines 2030 Green Steel Roadmap with Dual Strategy: EAF Expansion + CCUS POSCO released its semi-annual low-carbon implementation plan last week, announcing an additional 1.2 trillion KRW investment in CCUS retrofits for existing steel plants this year. The Gwangyang and Pohang headquarters will progressively install converter gas capture systems, while expanding scrap-based EAF production lines in South Gyeongsang Province to add 1.8 million tons of short-process steel capacity annually, leveraging Korea's recycled scrap resources to cut raw material costs. Due to new EU import regulations, Korean hot-rolled coils originally bound for Europe are being redirected to Southeast Asian markets like Vietnam and Indonesia, with weekly shipments to the region up 17% month-on-month. %% IV. Southeast Asia Region: Chinese EPC Projects Ramp Up as Indonesia Expands Nickel-Iron and Stainless Steel Production Last week, Southeast Asia's steel sector maintained its trend of Indonesia's stainless steel expansion, Vietnam's rebounding long product demand, and Malaysia's infrastructure-driven steel imports. Chinese equipment firms like MCC reached critical milestones in hot-testing and commissioning multiple steel projects across Indonesia.
1. Multiple Chinese-funded steel projects in Indonesia commence production, accelerating the improvement of the stainless steel industry chain.
4. Southeast Asia Region: Intensive commissioning of Chinese-funded EPC projects, continued expansion of Indonesia's nickel-iron and stainless steel industries %% Last week, Southeast Asia's steel sector maintained its pattern of Indonesia's stainless steel capacity expansion, Vietnam's rebounding domestic demand for long products, and Malaysia's infrastructure-driven steel imports. Chinese equipment enterprises like MCC reached critical milestones in hot commissioning and production commencement across multiple Indonesian steel projects. %% 1. Multiple Chinese-built steel projects commence production in Indonesia, accelerating the improvement of the stainless steel industrial chain %% 2. Oman signs contract for new EAF steel plant, leveraging local green hydrogen plans for low-carbon steelmaking %% Oman recently signed a contract for a foreign-funded short-process steel plant project, which adopts full electric arc furnace technology. The first phase will produce 306,000 tons of steel billets annually, with operations starting in 2028. The project aligns with Oman's "2040 Green Hydrogen Plan" to eventually integrate green hydrogen DRI production lines, reducing the Gulf countries' reliance on steel imports. Concurrently, a supporting lithium battery anode material project has been launched, extending the new energy industrial chain downstream of steel.
3. Cement infrastructure projects in North African countries like Morocco and Algeria drive steel consumption synergistically.
1.Multiple Chinese funded steel projects in Indonesia have been put into operation, improving and accelerating the stainless steel industry chain
Last week, the hot-dip galvanizing unit of Indonesia Ocean Steel, equipped by China Metallurgical Group, successfully commenced trial production in one go, filling the gap in Indonesia's localized production capacity for high-end coated steel products. The 580m³ blast furnace renovation and expansion project at TSI Steel Plant, undertaken by MCC20, was smoothly ignited, while the large-scale carbon production line in Indonesia, constructed by Minmetals MCC23, achieved early completion. The implementation of these three major projects helps Indonesia reduce its reliance on imported steel and carbon raw materials. In Indonesia's nickel industry, NPI ferronickel production remained stable, with the country temporarily suspending a comprehensive export ban on ferronickel. Stainless steel plants have ample raw material supplies, and the national production schedule for 300-series stainless steel remains high, with large quantities of finished stainless steel being exported to Southeast Asian and Middle Eastern markets.
2. Vietnam's Steel Mills Accelerate Energy-Saving Upgrades, Domestic Infrastructure Bolsters Long Product Demand
Last week, several private steel mills in southern Vietnam initiated energy-saving technological upgrades, including waste heat power generation and sintering machine desulfurization, aiming to reduce electricity procurement costs and mitigate pressure from rising power prices. Highway renovations and expansions, along with the concentrated commencement of affordable housing projects, have steadily increased domestic demand for rebar. Local steel mills maintained an operating rate above 82%, with surplus clinker and long products being exported to Malaysia and Cambodia.
3. Divergence in Steel Imports Between Malaysia and the Philippines: New Local Production Lines in the Philippines Reduce Purchases from Vietnam
Infrastructure projects on Malaysian islands and urban renewal initiatives continue to progress, with rebar imports rising 23% week-on-week last week, mainly sourced from Vietnam and Indonesia. In the Philippines, two newly operational electric arc furnace steel plants are gradually reaching full production, boosting local self-sufficiency in long products. This marks the third consecutive week of reduced steel imports from Vietnam, leading to a sustained decline in steel trade volume between Vietnam and the Philippines.
5. India, Middle East & Africa: Infrastructure Supports Long Steel Demand, with Simultaneous Implementation of Steel Companies' Technological Upgrades and New Projects
1. Tata Steel Jamshedpur Blast Furnace Transformation Completed, World's First Electrically Assisted Syngas Blast Furnace Enters Construction Phase %% The EAF-assisted syngas transformation project for Tata Steel India's No. E Blast Furnace, signed with SMS Group, entered the equipment installation phase last week. This marks the world's first industrialized EASyMelt electrically assisted blast furnace, utilizing plasma-heated syngas to replace coke. Post-transformation, the furnace will reduce emissions by over 50%, setting a practical example for low-carbon upgrades of traditional blast furnaces globally. Concurrently, JSW Steel signed a contract with India's L&T for supporting equipment for a million-ton-scale steel plant, expanding its integrated steel mill in Karnataka with an additional 3.2 million tons of billet capacity annually. With nationwide highway and rural housing projects accelerating, demand for long steel products remains robust, driving a 2.2% week-on-week increase in domestic rebar spot prices. %% 2. Oman Signs Agreement for New EAF Steel Plant, Leveraging Local Green Hydrogen for Low-Carbon Steelmaking %% Oman recently signed a foreign-invested short-process steel plant project, adopting a full electric arc furnace (EAF) process. The first phase will produce 306,000 tons of billets annually, commencing operations in 2028. The project aligns with Oman's "2040 Green Hydrogen Plan," with future plans to integrate green hydrogen-based DRI production, reducing the Gulf region's reliance on steel imports. A supporting lithium battery anode material project was also launched, extending the steel industry's downstream new energy supply chain. %% 3. Cement and Infrastructure Projects in North Africa's Morocco and Algeria Drive Steel Consumption
Infrastructure projects are being launched intensively across multiple North African countries, driving up demand for cement, construction materials, and supporting steel bars and profiles. Three local electric arc furnace steel plants in Morocco have begun two-shift continuous production. Algeria is reducing steel imports from Europe while increasing purchases of long products from Turkey and India.
2.Oman's newly built electric arc furnace steel plant signs contract and lands, relying on local green hydrogen planning for low-carbon steelmaking
Oman signed a contract last week for a foreign-funded short process steel plant project, which adopts the full electric arc furnace process. The first phase of the project will produce 306000 tons of steel billets annually, and will be put into operation in 2028. With the support of Oman's "2040 Green Hydrogen Plan" long-term supporting green hydrogen DRI production line, the project aims to reduce the dependence of Gulf countries on steel imports; Synchronize the implementation of supporting lithium battery negative electrode material projects and extend the downstream new energy industry chain of steel.
3.Cement infrastructure linkage between Morocco and Algeria in North Africa drives steel consumption
Multiple North African countries have launched concentrated infrastructure projects, driving up demand for cement, building materials, reinforcement bars, and profiles. Three local electric arc furnace steel plants in Morocco have begun two-shift continuous production, while Algeria has reduced steel imports from Europe and increased purchases of long products from Turkey and India. %% Iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil remain stable, with the international Platts iron ore index declining slightly by 1.1% week-on-week. In the scrap steel sector, European scrap prices weakened due to production cuts at steel mills, while U.S. and Southeast Asian scrap prices remained firm due to increased procurement demand from newly operational electric arc furnaces. Metallurgical coke prices edged up slightly amid coal supply disruptions, raising procurement costs for overseas steel mills. %% 2. Global Steel Price Review: Strength in Europe and the U.S., Weakness in Turkey, and Steady Gains in Southeast Asia %% Europe saw higher quotations for both flat and long products due to new tariff policies. In the U.S., prices for specialty steel used in new energy sectors rose, while ordinary construction steel fluctuated slightly. Turkish long products continued to trade at low levels. Southeast Asia and India experienced steady price increases driven by domestic demand, creating a clear regional divergence pattern. %% 3. Global Low-Carbon Technology Overview: CCUS, Green Hydrogen DRI, and Full-Scrap Electric Arc Furnaces Emerge as the Three Main Decarbonization Pathways
Six. Global Raw Materials, Steel Market Trends, and Industry Leaders' Dynamics %% 1. Raw Materials: Iron Ore Fluctuates Weakly, Global Scrap Prices Show Regional Divergence %% Iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil remain stable, with the international Platts iron ore index declining slightly by 1.1% week-on-week. In the scrap market, European scrap prices weakened due to production restrictions at steel mills, while U.S. and Southeast Asian scrap prices remained firm due to increased procurement demand from new electric furnace operations. Metallurgical coke prices rose slightly amid coal supply disruptions, and overseas steel mills faced marginally higher coke procurement costs. %% 2. Global Steel Price Review: Strength in Europe and the U.S., Weakness in Turkey, and Steady Growth in Southeast Asia %% In Europe, steel plate and long product prices rose due to tariff policy support. The U.S. saw price increases for special steel used in new energy applications, while ordinary construction steel prices fluctuated slightly. Turkey’s long product prices remained persistently low. Southeast Asia and India, supported by domestic demand, experienced steady price increases, creating a clear regional divergence pattern.
3. Global Low-Carbon Technology Overview: CCUS, Green Hydrogen DRI, and Full Scrap EAF Emerge as the Three Mainstream Decarbonization Pathways
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2.Resumption of global steel price: strong in Europe and the United States, weak in Türkiye, stable and rising in Southeast Asia
Supported by the new tariff policies in Europe, the prices of sheet and long materials have increased; The price of new energy special steel in the United States has increased, while the price of ordinary building steel has fluctuated slightly; Türkiye's long timber continues to operate at low level; Southeast Asia and India have steadily increased steel prices based on domestic demand, forming a clear regional differentiation pattern.
3. Global inventory of low-carbon technologies: CCUS, green hydrogen DRI, and all scrap electric furnaces have become the three mainstream decarbonization paths
Last week, multiple global institutions released statistics on steel decarbonization. Among the current low-carbon projects implemented worldwide, short-process scrap steel electric furnaces stand out as the fastest and most cost-effective technological upgrade route. Natural gas-based DRI is the primary mid-term solution for Europe and the US, while green hydrogen steelmaking and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in steel plants are mainly piloted by leading multinational corporations. However, constrained by green hydrogen costs and carbon storage geological conditions, large-scale industrial implementation is expected to focus on post-2030.
VII. Weekly Summary and Market Outlook
(1) This Week's Industry Summary
1. Policy Front: The implementation of the EU's new steel import protection policies emerged as the most significant variable of the week, reshaping global steel trade flows. Imports into the EU contracted, redirecting surplus resources to Turkey, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, thereby transforming regional supply dynamics.
2. Production Front: Steelmakers in Europe and the US accelerated low-carbon technological upgrades, transitioning from blast furnaces to short-process methods. Southeast Asia and India continued expanding production driven by domestic demand, while Japan and South Korea underwent periodic maintenance and output controls, leading to stable global crude steel output with structural adjustments.
3. Demand Side: New energy infrastructure in Europe and America, along with traditional infrastructure in Southeast Asia and India, have become essential pillars, while sluggish real estate in Europe drags down end-consumption of flat products, and weak manufacturing in Turkey and Central-Eastern Europe suppresses demand for long products.
4. Cost Aspect: International prices for coal coke and scrap steel diverge, while European carbon costs continue to rise, forcing steel companies to accelerate energy-saving and low-carbon transformation for cost reduction.
(II) Market Outlook
1. Steel Prices: Short-term European steel prices, supported by tariffs, are more likely to rise than fall, while Turkey remains under pressure; Southeast Asia and India maintain a steady upward trend backed by infrastructure projects.
2. Trade: More steel originally destined for the EU will be redirected to Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America, increasing spot supply in these regions and limiting further price increases.
3. Industry Trends: The global steel industry will continue to accelerate the shift toward short-process electric furnaces and hydrogen-based DRI transformations. CBAM carbon tariffs and the EU's dual-control import policies will long-term drive the replacement of outdated high-carbon blast furnaces with low-carbon steel production capacity worldwide.